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Analysis of the demographic and socio-economic development scenarios based on the model of internal and external migration flows | 08-05-2007
The outcomes of the CEFIR project on forecasting migration flows in Russia covering the forthcoming 20 years are available to download (in Russian). The project outcomes allow to estimate in which way the population of Russia as a whole and in certain its regions will change both in case of unlimited migration flows and in case of state regulation of migration flows.
Start Date: November 2006
Completion Date: February 2007

Project Summary:

The main project objective to analyze different demographic and socio-economic development scenarios for Russia’s regions on the basis of the applied model of internal and external migration flows across Russia’s regions, the CIS countries and non-CIS countries. Calculations are based on the dynamic model of migration flows developed by Andrienko and Guriev (2006). By scenarios we mean demographic and economic trends consistent with the official socio-economic and demographic forecasts developed by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and Rosstat.

Project Outputs:

The project will analyze different socio-economic development scenarios with regard to their impact on migration in the country as a whole and in selected regions. The model will permit to analyze both the short- and long-term impact. The spatial component of the model will permit to evaluate how a change in the socio-economic situation in a particular region will influence migration in that region and in neighboring regions.

The following will be included in the study:

  • A country-wide analysis.
  • Analysis of migration flows for each pair of regions with results aggregated for the country as a whole.
  • Analyses for individual regions.

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