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Main page | Research and Policy Projects
Developing a model for macroeconomic forecasting and revenues assessing in terms of medium-term financial planning for the RF Minisrty of Finance | 29-01-2007
How to improve budget planning in Russia? This is one of the main objectives of the on-going CEFIR project.
Project Dates: October 2006 — October 2007

The project has been jointly implemented with «Prime Group» company.

The goal of the project is to provide the RF Ministry of Finance with a model for macroeconomic forecasting and revenues assessing aimed at developing budget drafts such as a draft of the RF perspective financial plan and a draft of the RF federal budget.

Project Summary:

One of the main objectives of the project is to improve a medium-term and long-term budget planning of the Russian Federation.

For this purpose, Russian and international experience on macroeconomic modeling and budget forecasting has been analyzed at the first stage of the project, as well as a summary of the Russian legislature in the field of budget forecasting has been made. Based on the conclusions of the analysis, it is quite obvious that none of the existing models, both in Russia and abroad, could be directly used for the purposes of budget planning in Russia. A new more adequate model should be developed.

Such a model will be worked out at the next stage of the project. A new model will be a complex (structural) model of general dynamic equilibrium. Still apart from the existing models it will contain a budget block.

At the final stage of the project specialists of the RF Ministry of Finance will be trained and provided with the recommendations on data base use and on the model.
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Centre for Economic and Financial