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Forecasting internal and external migration flows in the medium-term and in the long run | 26-11-2007
Obviously, migration policy issues are one of the most significant for providing national security, optimal balance for labor force, and for supporting sustainable economic growth. Thus lack of the clear understanding of the internal and external migration flows makes it impossible to plan the development of the social infrastructure and to predict situation on the regional labor markets.
Forecasting internal and external migration flows in the medium-term and in the long run will help:
  • Develop environment for attracting legal qualified labor force to Russia;
  • Improving migration accounting of foreigners in Russia
  • Resist illegal migration
  • Develop measures for supporting internal labor migration.

Project summary:

There is an updated modified dynamic model of internal and external migration flows developed by CEFIR specialists which is used in the project. The model was developed on the data base for 90 regions and countries for the time period of 1993-2003. The model allows estimating migration flows for each couple of the Russian regions for any year till 2025. The estimation is based on the forecast of the direct and reverse migration flows between this couple of regions in the previous year, as well as on the demographic data and socio-economic situation in the regions in the studied year and the year before.

According to the model, there is a direct dependence of the size of the regions and migration flows between these regions and inverse dependence of the distance between the regions and migration flows. Still a whole number of demographic and socio-economic indicators influence migration flows. Attraction factors at the microeconomic level are good job opportunities and high income, adequate level of public goods provision. Repulsive factors are lack of stable high-income job, difficulties in finding new job, low level of education standards and low level of public goods provision. Climate, cultural environment and other aspects also play an important role.
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